REF: A. DJAKARTA 3445 B. DJAKARTA A-220, MAY 28, 1969 C. STATE 88198 D. STATE 87881

1. SUMMARY: THE ACT OF FREE CHOICE (AFC) IN WEST IRIAN IS UNFOLDING LIKE A GREEK TRAGEDY, THE CONCLUSION PREORDAINED. THE MAIN PROTAGONIST, THE GOI, CANNOT AND WILL NOT PERMIT ANY RESOLUTION OTHER THAN THE CONTINUED INCLUSION OF WEST IRIAN IN INDONESIA. DISSIDENT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS THE CLIMAX IS REACHED BUT THE INDONESIAN ARMED FORCES WILL BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY, IF NECESSARY, SUPPRESS IT. THE GOI WILL BE SENSITIVE TO ITS "IMAGE" ABROAD, HOWEVER, AND WILL SEEK TO AVOID ACTIONS THAT WILL REFLECT NEGATIVELY ON THE CREDIBILITY OF THE AFC IN THE SENSITIVE EYES OF THE NETHERLANDS, AUSTRALIA AND WITH U THANT. THE TEST OF THE GOI'S CREDITIBLITY VIS-A-VIS THE IRIANESE, AS WELL AS INTER-NATIONAL OPINION, WILL COME LESS FROM THE AFC THAN FROM POLICIES AND ACTIONS UNDERTAKEN AFTERWARD. UNLESS THE GOI IS PREPARED TO DEVOTE A MAJOR EFFORT TO DEVELOPMENT OF WEST IRIAN, DISSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AND POSSIBLY SERIOUS PROBLEMS WILL ARISE WITH PAPUA/NEW GUINEA AND GOA. END SUMMARY.

2. IT LONG KNOWN THAT OUTCOME OF AFC IS PREDICTABLE. GOI HAS NO INTENTION OF ALLOWING WEST IRIAN CHOOSE OTHER THAN INCORPORATION INTO INDONESIA. SEPARATION IS UNTHINKABLE. TO MOST INDONESIANS, WI IS PART OF INDON "MANIFEST DESTINY," WHOLSE LOSS WOULD GIVE IMPETUS TO FISSIPAROUS TENDENCIES IN OTHER PARTS ARCHIPELAGO, WHERE ANTI-JAVA FEELINGS RUN STRONG. SUWARTO GOVERNMENT WOULD FACE CRUCIAL INTERNATAL POLITICAL FCLASH WITH NATIONALISTS AND MOSLEMS WHO ALREAD CARP AT GOI RITUALISTIC ADHERENCE TO NEW YORK AGREEMENT. WITH SUCH HIGH POLITICAL STAKES, QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER IRIAN WILL REMAIN PART OF INDONESIA BUT HOW GOI MANAGES AFC TO SATISFY U THANT AND ITS INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATION, PREVENT INTERNAL IRIAN SITUATION FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND, AND COPE WITH EXTERNAL POLITICAL PRESSURES, LARGELY FROM AUSTRALIA AND NETHERLANDS.

3. EVERY INDICATION IS THAT GOI DETERMINED PUSH ON WITH AFC AS PLANNED (REF B) DESPITE THREAT OF DISRUPTIVE INDIDENTS BY INCREASINGLY DESPERATE FREE PAPUA ACTIVISTS OR INTERNATIONAL CONCERN OVER CREDIBILITY OF INDON METHOD. LACK OF COHESION AMONG ANTI-GOI ACTIVISTS (REF A) INDICATS, HOWEVER, THERE LITTLE LIKELIHOOD OF IRIAN-WIDE REVOLT WHICH COULD JEOPARDIZE AFC, MOREVOER, OPPOSITION IRIANESE DO NOT APPEAR HAVE COHERENT PLAN TO SABOTAGE AFC AND THERE NO EVIDENCE SO FAR OF WIDESPREAD BOYCOTT. FACT THAT OVER HALF AFC COUNCIL SELECTIONS ALREADY COMPLETED POINTS TOO AFC WINDUP ON SCHEDULE.

4. AS AFC COMPLETION NEARS, THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE FURTHER SPORADIC INCIDENTS, REFUSAL OF SOME VOTERS TO TURN OUT, POANA SIBLY DEMONSTRATIONS BY ANTI-GOI ELEMENTS. ACCORDING IRIANESE POLITICAL SOURCES, STUDENTS PARTICULARLY ARE BECOMING DESPERATE AND SEEKING DRAMATIC EVENT TO TURN WORLD'S ATTENTION TO THEIR PLIGHT. THESE SAME POLTICIANS, BEING PRAGMATISTS, ARE NOT PUTTING THEIR NECKS ON LINE BY JOINING FOREFRONG OF OPPOSITION.

5. 6000 PLUS INDON TROOPS IN WI APPEAR CAPABLE OF QUICKLY SUPPRESSING ANY INCIDENTS THAT MAY OCCUR. UNTIL AFC COMPLETION, MILITARY COMMANDER SARWO EDHIE DETERMINED ACCOMPLISH HIS PRIMARY MISSION TO KEEP LAW AND ORDER. SOME STEAM HAS ALREADY BEEN TAKEN OUT OF OPPOSITION BY PREVENTIVE ARRESTS SINCE LATE APRIL OF KNOWN FREE PAPUA ACTIVISTS, ROUND-UP IN DJAJAPURA OF ONE MAN-ONE VOTE DEMONSTRATION LEADERS, AND INCREASED BORDER SURVEILLANCE WHICH CAUSING INCIDENTS AND INCREASED BORDER SURVEILLANCE WHICH CAUSING INCIDENTS AND INCURSIONS REPORTED BY EMBASSY CANBERRA. AS REPORTED BY REF B, REBELS IN NORTH BIAK, BIRD'S HEAD, AND MEOUNAMANI AREA ARE ISOLATED AND, LACKING MATERIAL RESOURCES, DO NOT POSE SERIOUS INTERNAL SECURITY THREAT.

6. GREATER CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS FUTURE INDONESIAN RELATIONS WITH IRIANESE AFTER COMPLETION OF AFC RITUAL. THERE IS MUCH NEED FOR CROSS-CULTURAL TOLERANCE AND UNDERSTANDING AND DRASTIC IMPROVEMENT IN WEST IRIAN ADMINISTRATION (ASSUMING FUND WI EFFECTIVELY TAKES UP SLACK IN DEVELOPMENT FIELD IN NEXT TWO YEARS) IF INDONESIANS ARE TO KEEP FAITH WITH IRIANESE. UNCONCILLATORY ATTITUDE, MALADMINISTRATION, OR MASSIVE NEGLECT BY GOI WILL AGGRAVATE FESTERING ANTAGONISM AND IRIANESE DISTRUST OF INDONESIANS (SUCH AS ALREAD EXISTS IN SUMATRA, MINAHASA, AND AMBON TOWARD JAVANESE). SEEDS OF THIS SHOWN CLEARLY IN EXPULSION OF INDONESIAN TEACHERS, CIVIL SERVANTS, AND PREACHERS FROM ENAROTALI AREA AND LOOTING OF THEIR HOMES AND PROPERTY BY REBELS.

BT

NNN

Department of State TELEGRAM

CONFIDENTIAL 742

PAGE 01 DJAKAR 03614 02 OF 02 100941Z

14

ACTION EA 15

INFO OCT 01,EUR 17,IO 13,CIAE 00,DODE 00,JPM 04,H 02,INR 07,L 03,NSAE 00,NSC 10,P 04,RSC 01,SP 02,SS 20,USIA 12,UPW 01,AID 28,RSR 01,/141 W

---------------------- 055164

R 091052Z JUN 69

FM AMEMBASSY DJAKARTA

TO SECSTATE WASHDC 213

INFO AMEMBASSY CANBERRA

AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE

IEUMJDN/AMCONSUL MEDAN 1937

AMCONSUL SURABAYA

USMISSION USAN

CINCPAC 1192

CONFIDENTIAL SECTION 2 OF 2 DJAKARTA 3614

CORRECTED COPT (PARA 7)

7. RELATIONS WITH GOA ARE LIKELY TO BE STRAINED FURTHER IF FREE PAPUA ELEMENTS IN PAPUA/NEW GUINEA (A) PERMITTED CONTINUE EVEN PIECEMEAL SUPPORT OF ANTI-GOI ELEMENTS, (B) SUCCEED IN FORMING COORDINATED SUBVERSIVE MOVEMENT IN WEST IRIAN, AND/OR © PROVOKE BORDER INCIDENTS. THERE IS EVEN GREATER DANGER IF WEST IRIAN BECOMES "POOR RELATION" AS RESULT GOI FAILURE TO IMPROVE ECONOMIC/POLITICAL CLIMATE WHILE P/NG CONTINUES TO PROGRESS. NO EVIDENCE YET THAT GOI HAS GIVEN ANY SERIOUS CONSIDERATION TO FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONS WITH Australia ON WEST IRIAN-P/PN MATTERS, BUT SITUATION PROMISES TO BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR BOTH GOVERNMENTS.

8. CONSIDERING ALL ASPECTS OF SITUATION, MISSION WHOLEHEARTEDLY ENDORSES DEPARTMENT POSITION AND GUIDANCE CONTAINED REFS C AND D. USG HAS NOTHING TO GAIN BY INTERFERING IN ALREADY COMPLEX PROBLEM AND THEREBY DISRUPTING PRESENT FRUTIFUL RELATIONS WITH GOI. WE SHOULD, HOWEVER, CONTINUE IN LOW KEY TO BRING TO GOI ATTENTION NEED FOR CREDIBILITY IN AFC FOR IRIANESE SAKE AND TO KEEP RELATIONS WITH GOA AND GO?? ON EVEN KEEL. BELIEVE IT ALSO INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT TO GET GOI THINKING ABOUT LONG RANGE IMPORTANCE OF WI IN TERMS WORLD OPINION AND PARTICULARY RELATIONS WITH AUSTRALIA. GOI IS THINKING OF PHASING OUT FUND WI AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. IF LEFT TO OWN DEVICES, HOWEVER, GOI UNLIKELY TO GIVE MUCH ATTENTION OR MKMRIAL HELP TO WEST IRIAN. SOMEHOW MESSAGE SHOULD BE GOTTEN ACROSS TO GOI THAT WORLD OPINION REGARDS GOI AS HAVING SPECIAL COMMITMENT TO STONE-AGE IRIANESE REQUIRING SPECIAL EFFORT PERHAPS BEST FURTHERED THROUGH MULTILATERAL APPROACH.

GP-3. LYDMAN

CONFIDENTIAL